hopelesglory on Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:55 pm
Hi Carnivore,
I think this is an easy call in my opinion (tut tut for not raising pre flop!), this would be my thought patterns:
First thing to consider is pot odds - gives you an indication of how often you need to win to be profitable. Here you need to win 1 in 3 times to break even: 2250 to win 4575
Second thing I like to consider is my stack size before and after a call/fold:
If you call and lose you have 12000
If you fold you have 14000
if you call and win you have 18500
Because the bb is 150, all 3 scenarios are good for you - however you can take more risks to make more chips because the blinds are so small (and hence you won't be below 20bb situation if u lose the pot)
Next thing I will consider is my hand strength and his holding. It's hard to tell what he has becasue he limped under the gun, but some possibilities are:
AA (hoping someone wud raise preflop) - KK unlikely cos you have it and QQ first to act you would exoect him to raise cos it isn't strong enough to allow free cards...
JJ TT or 99, JJ most likely as this would align with his post flop play and its not uncommon for people to limp utg with JJ, TT less likely as a T on the flop (and you would expect him to slowplay such a strong hand post flop), 99 same as JJ explanation.
Small Pairs: same as JJ, however less likely as people are more inclined to fold small pairs UTG - if he trips again you would expect some slow playing, he bet 900 into a 525 pot on the flop....that indiciates to me that he had a strong hand, but not amazingly strong, that he wanted to protect and not get drawn out (which makes me think he had JJ, AA or 2 pair)
AT: Another potential holding which aligns with the UTG limp, but not so much with the flop/turn betting -
Suited connectors: KQ, JQ, JT, J9, T9, 87 are all potential holdings here, and would align with his betting patterns
Bluff: Pretty unlikely as his betting sizes are ridicolous relative to the pot, however always worth adding a 10% margin for this as you never know what to expect
So in summary we could say (unfortunately we have no info on the guy or his style so we can't tweak this enhance the accuracy):
10% chance bluff
30% AA or JJ
30% Suited connector flush/straight draw
30% trips or 2 pair
According to the pot odds (first item) you need to win 1 in 3 to break even, and more times for profit..I think we easily make that margin of 1 in 3
Seeing as you have so many chips also and losing won't put you in a bad position that adds more value to the call
It's also worth consider that you might win even if u call and are behind (e.g. 2 pair but u river a higher 2 pair)
So my opinion: Call! however maybe he had AA and it was a great laydown
nice post, sorry my response is a bit rushed!
Steve (hopelesglory)
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